Making Investment Decisions About a SARS-CoV-2 Treatment

Jan 1, 2023

What our client needed

At the outset of the global pandemic, a small US biotech company discovered that one of its assets demonstrated efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. At this point in the pandemic, there was significant uncertainty about the shape and trajectory of the disease. In addition, the company was faced with limited raw material supply, constraints on manufacturing capacity, and needed to quickly decide on which of three possible formulations in which to invest.

Cofactor’s expertise in market analysis, forecasting and scenario planning, combined with our collaborative and efficient working style, allowed us to successfully partner with our client to deliver results.

Cofactor solution

The Cofactor team developed a scenario-based approach for the assessment to account for significant uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic. Because the CEO was an expert on infectious disease, the process efficiently leveraged his knowledge and expertise in the category. The analysis ultimately resulted in a set of scenarios built around three key levers – the shape of the case curve, the hospitalization & death rate, and the timing & efficacy of a vaccine.

Following the development of the scenarios, Cofactor developed a robust forecasting tool to project the number of outpatient and hospitalized patients under each possible outcome. When pricing, supply and formulation variables were accounted for, the model functioned as a decision support tool that helped the client decide which market to invest in first and how much manufacturing capacity would be required to satisfy potential demand.

Project outcome

The results of our analysis enabled the CEO to align his leadership team and Board of Directors around an investment plan for the product. The plan prioritized one target opportunity over others due to the size of the market and the firm’s readiness to develop the product for the prioritized setting.

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